Investing.com -- Waymo is projected to account for 10% of U.S. rideshare trips by the end of 2030, according to new estimates from Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC).
The bank expects the Alphabet-owned autonomous vehicle (AV) company to scale from 18 million rides in 2025 to 465 million by 2030, driven by a rapid expansion into new markets that will cover 57% of U.S. rideshare demand, up from 9% at the end of this year.
Waymo currently operates in four cities and has announced plans to enter 17 additional markets, with commercial launches anticipated between 2026 and 2027.
“Consumer adoption is happening quickly in early markets,” Wells Fargo analysts led by Ken Gawrelski said, noting that Waymo’s rides in San Francisco and Los Angeles had already reached a significant share of local trips.
The analysts see Waymo’s market share reaching 3.5% by 2027 and then rising steadily to 10% by 2030. Within its operational zones, Waymo is forecast to achieve 16% penetration overall and 22% in its currently announced markets.
Analysts believe rapid Waymo market expansion to 42% of U.S. rideshare markets by 2028 and reaching 5.4% U.S. market penetration, coupled with pricing growth headwinds, caps upside to Uber (NYSE:UBER) and Lyft’s U.S. gross bookings growth.
While 30% of Waymo rides are expected to be incremental to the overall market, Wells Fargo anticipates minimal incrementality from additional autonomous vehicle entrants.
“Prospects for Uber& Lyft to serve as key demand partners for AV suppliers have dimmed recently as Waymo appears thus far to be going it alone in all announced TBD/2026 markets,” the analysts noted.
However, they noted that longer term, there may be opportunities for Uber and Lyft (NASDAQ:LYFT) to help drive higher utilization of autonomous fleets.
Still, Waymo’s expected growth is likely to have material implications for industry leaders Uber and Lyft. By 2030, Wells Fargo forecasts Uber and Lyft will lose 5 and 4 percentage points of market share, respectively.
It estimates that 30% of Waymo’s rides will be incremental to the industry, while the remaining 70% will come at the expense of existing players.
Pricing trends are also projected to change as the sector matures and becomes more competitive. Wells Fargo projects rideshare pricing will remain flat through 2030, a slowdown from the 3% annual growth seen between 2021 and 2024. That pressure on pricing is expected to weigh on profitability.
“We forecast 2026/27 UBER total incremental EBITDA margins of 7.6% and 6.8%, below our 2025 estimate of 8.5%,” the analysts wrote.
While Uber is seen absorbing the impact better due to foreign exchange (FX) benefits, Lyft’s 2027 EBITDA estimate was cut by 9% and is now 10% below consensus.
The firm expects the volume impact from Waymo to become more visible from 2028 onward.