Investing.com -- Apple shares may benefit from short-term upside as deep discounting in China fuels stronger-than-expected iPhone and iPad sales, according to Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS).
“iPhone and iPad sell-through in China are positively surprising this quarter thanks to 618 Festival promotion momentum,” Morgan Stanley analysts wrote, adding that the trend suggests “up to $4B June revenue upside vs. MSe, all else equal.”
“Specifically, we now see ~3.0M units of upside to our June quarter iPhone shipments and ~2.5M units of upside to our June quarter iPad shipments,” the bank stated.
China’s 618 Festival promotions and national subsidies are said to have been key drivers, leading to “very strong” iPhone sell-through for three consecutive weeks.
The bank’s Greater China Tech Hardware team now estimates 46.5 million iPhone builds and 14.5 million iPad builds in the June quarter, representing year-over-year growth of 19% and 38%, respectively.
That’s up from prior estimates of 45 million iPhones and 13 million iPads.
Using historical seasonal relationships between builds and shipments, Morgan Stanley projects iPhone shipments to hit 49 million, which is “7% above MSe of 46.0M units, and 8% above Consensus at 45.2M.”
For iPads, they now see 14.7 million shipments, “20% above MSe of 12.3M (NYSE:MMM) units, and 12% above Consensus.”
While near-term Services growth uncertainty remains a concern for investors, Morgan Stanley stated: “Estimate upside is typically accompanied by multiple expansion, so watch for Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) to potentially catch a short-term bid given the stock is trading towards the lower-end of its 24-32x P/E range over the last 2 years.”